A bit of an answer to the question posed yesterday. One thing that I overlooked was my expectation with the stack I had at the time.

At the time of the bet my M was a whopping 32! Approximately. I wasn't in bad shape, obviously. It wasn't a turbo, and I was in top 10 position. The truth is...I could probably have gotten to at least 5th (the position I spoke of yesterday) without this double up. I would have only had to pick up 1 or 2 average pots at best in order to do that. That is not without reason.

So, let's say I'm in this position ten times, and I fold all ten times. Now, I call ten times. If you were to do the math on both, you would still be making many assumptions on expectation. Maybe in the double up I was underrating my expectations. But, thinking about it further I feel that the difference between the double up vs. folding would be difficult to determine.

This is mostly due to the fact that I was in good position in the tournament at the time. As I said, I had a M at the time of 32, and if I were to fold to final table, based on my experiences, I would start the FT with an M of at least 10, maybe a little more.

On one hand, the double up makes me feel as if I would actually do much better than 5th each time it occurred, and on the other hand I feel that the results wouldn't be dramatically different when the double up is successful PLUS everytime the double up attempt is unsuccessful I make nothing whereas when I fold I'm still VERY much in the tournament.

At this point I'm going to work on the math further on the side, and at one point, I'll give a more detailed breakdown of why this is somewhat of an option (in special circumstances) or not.